PREDICCIONES PARA EL AÑO 2013, primer cuatrimestre
- Posted by Francisco Guinart on December 23rd, 2012 filed in Uncategorized
- 763 Comentarios »
Ese análisis se deriva del estudio conjunto de distintos ciclos:
Ciclo primario con una órbita entre 15 a 21 semanas
El ciclo de 18 meses
El ciclo de 3-4 años (tres ciclos de 18 meses), equivalente a las cinco ondas largas de Elliott
Son ciclos dentro de ciclos, interpenetrados, los más cortos dentro de los de rango superior.
Ese gráfico permite intuir la entrada a un tramo de final de ciclos, quienes siguen mis informes están familiarizados con esa modalidad de análisis y pueden deducir que el tercer ciclo de 18 meses tiende a su fondo final y con él también el ciclo de 3-4 años.
Ondas de Elliott en el índice FTSE 100
En el pasado mes de septiembre culminó la cresta de la quinta onda larga y de ahí se inició el recorte en ABC, quizás ABCDE.
Una primera aproximación a final de ciclos apunta a últimos de enero – mediados de febrero, sería el final de los ciclos antes apuntados (primario, 18 meses y 3-4 años, todos alineados), una segunda hipótesis situaría ese final al entorno: última semana de marzo – primera de abril.
El final de ciclos quedará identificado con un movimiento en V, un recorte violento como fondo final de los viejos ciclos, seguido de una reacción al alza como inicio de los nuevos.
Después del fondo final, el primer ciclo de inicio será el Primario (15 a 21 semanas), que según vaya a ser su cierre, por encima o por debajo de su inicio, definirá la tendencia del segundo Primario.
La proyección temporal de puntos medios apunta, como momentos propicios a cambios de tendencia:
1ª y 2ª semana de febrero, mediados de marzo, primera semana de abril
Nuevas predicciones en el segundo cuatrimestre de 2013
FELIZ NAVIDAD Y UN PRÓSPERO AÑO NUEVO
Francisco Guinart en Febrero de 2008
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