INFORME SEMANA – del 7 al 13 de mayo de 2012

Análisis de cíclicos

Aunque no para todos los índices se confirmaba en el informe semana anterior el final del noveno Ciclo Primario.

A nivel teórico, un ciclo primario natural obedece a oscilaciones rítmicas naturales a las que distintos índices de bolsa tienden a replicar, en general hay alineamiento entre índices, no obstante también se presentan divergencias entre ellos, principalmente fruto de coyunturas económicas adversas, en esos momentos la divergencia es entre países  del continente europeo con respecto a índices americanos.

A efectos de tendencia, hay que tener en cuenta el carácter alcista que deberían poner de manifiesto todos los índices, puesto que:

El tramo corriente desde octubre de 2011 corresponde a una quinta onda larga de Elliott que de por sí es alcista, como lo pone de manifiesto el grafico del índice DOW JONES I.A.

Tendencia alcista no compartida por otros índices que parece quieren pero no pueden.

El problema para todos aquellos índices incapaces de replicar el ciclo natural es que cuando se produzca el cambio de tendencia corregirán como si realmente hubiesen subido.


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