INFORME SEMANA – 19 al 25 de marzo de 2012
- Posted by Francisco Guinart on March 18th, 2012 filed in Uncategorized
- 1,433 Comentarios »
Análisis de cíclicos
Distintos gráficos muestran un punto medio el día 6 ó 7 de marzo, ahí se produjo un rebote generalizado, algunos han alcanzado ya cierres por encima del indicador MM25.
¿Puede considerarse ese punto medio como final e inicio de ciclo?
Excepto para el IBEX 35 (análisis del día 14) creo que no, pues en la mayoría de índices no se dieron requisitos suficientes:
Recortes insuficientes tanto por tiempo como por precio, además de no alcanzarse un nivel de sobreventa adecuado.
Acerca del momento de ciclo
En mi opinión todo apunta a que el viejo ciclo sigue desplegando.
Se trata de un ciclo primario distorsionado desde el inicio (algunos índices lo empezaron en septiembre, otros el 4 de octubre y alguno en noviembre), lo que induce a confusión que en su momento podrá aclararse.
¿Podrían los ciclos de los índices haber comenzado el 25 de noviembre igual que el índice NIKKEI?, cabe esa posibilidad.
El gráfico del ciclo del índice NASDAQ 100 sería el siguiente:
Francisco Guinart en Febrero de 2008
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