PREDICCIONES CICLICAS PARA EL 2012

  • Posted by Francisco Guinart on December 29th, 2011 filed in Uncategorized
  • 745 Comentarios »

Tales predicciones derivan del análisis de ciclos y sub-ciclos naturales, a los que distintos índices van a replicar, particularmente los más significativos, los pesos pesados como el SP-500.

Las distintas tendencias que pongo de manifiesto, probablemente poco comprendidas para quienes no estén versados en ciclos,  representan solo una pauta sobre la que en el transcurso del año habrá que ir haciendo revisiones y ajustes.

La economía fundamental evoluciona en forma cíclica, el sentimiento colectivo pasa de positivo a negativo, según se vea el vaso medio lleno o medio vacío. Durante la primera mitad de año la confianza será más positiva, por encima de la media, despertará la sensación de que lo peor ha pasado, no así la segunda mitad que se situará por debajo de la media, una realidad distinta a las expectativas irá tomando cuerpo, el sentimiento colectivo tenderá a ver el vaso medio vacío, lo que afectará de lleno a los mercados.

Esa es mi opinión que deriva del seguimiento de los siguientes ciclos:

ELLIOTT – Se hallan los gráficos transitando la quinta honda larga, tiempo propicio a coronarla dentro de los meses julio – agosto, desde allí se proyectará un recorte en A-B-C, también largo y traumático.

NOVENO CICLO PRIMARIO – Comenzó el 4 de octubre pasado, va desplegando tendencia alcista hasta definir su última cresta, factible a mediados de enero y de ahí recortará hasta su fondo final, donde iniciará el décimo primario.

OTROS CICLOS PRIMARIOS – Desplegarán uno largo o dos cortos, con sus fases, puntos medios y crestas al entorno julio – agosto.

Conclusiones en base a esos comportamientos cíclicos:

1º) La cresta referida al entorno de julio – agosto va a ser también la cresta de la quinta onda larga de Elliott, desde donde se iniciará el recorte en A-B-C.

2º) El recorte hasta A de Elliott será el correspondiente al del último ciclo primario hasta  entonces (décimo ó undécimo)

3º) Desde al final A seguirá otro ciclo primario, tendencia bajista (cierre por debajo de su inicio) formará el ala B-C

4º) Por otra parte el recorte en A-B-C de Elliott corresponderá a un punto medio significativo dentro del tercer ciclo de 18 meses que empezó en octubre de 2011, ver gráfico.

5º) Todos esos movimientos dentro del gran ciclo de 3-4 años, desplegando desde el mes de marzo de 2009


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