INFORME SEMANA – 7 al 13 de noviembre de 2011
- Posted by Francisco Guinart on November 7th, 2011 filed in Uncategorized
- 141 Comentarios »
Análisis del cíclico
Divergencia entre ciclos desde su inicio. El comienzo del ciclo primario fue para algunos índices el 16 de septiembre y para otros el 4 de octubre, lo cual representa una dificultad añadida al tratar de analizar ciclos.
La divergencia apuntada, propia de los momentos finales o iniciales de un ciclo largo, quedará normalizada a medida que vaya desplegando el ciclo, particularmente cuando alcance su fondo final.
Es mi opinión que el corriente ciclo primario pertenece ya a un tercer ciclo de 18 meses, así será si dentro de ese mes de noviembre no hubiera recortes penetrando o formando doble base con los soportes que representan los puntos de inicio (16 de septiembre ó 4 de octubre)
Tercer ciclo de 18 meses
Su tendencia principal es alcista (máximos y mínimos crecientes)
Ello en base al principio de la teoría de ciclos donde se indica:
El tramo más alcista de un ciclo corresponde al que va desde su inicio hasta la cresta de su primera mitad.
Tratándose de un ciclo largo estamos a meses vista de la cresta de su primera mitad.
Proyección temporal de puntos medios
Volviendo al tramo corriente del ciclo primario, se ha visto una cresta y tocaría un fondo de fase después de máximos y mínimos decrecientes, puede prolongarse hasta mediados de diciembre.
Francisco Guinart en Febrero de 2008
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