INFORME SEMANA – 13 al 19 de junio de 2011

Análisis del cíclico natural

Entrando en la decimocuarta semana del ciclo primario desde el 16 de marzo de 2011.

Es el séptimo ciclo primario desde marzo de 2009 cuando comenzaron ciclos largos.

Movimientos técnicos a corto

Descartada ya la presencia de un punto medio entre dos mitades de ciclo.

Los nuevos mínimos en la semana apuntan a:

– final de la segunda fase del ciclo primario, o quizás

– final de un ciclo de corto alcance

Ello va a depender de la calidad de un rebote, siempre que se alcancen cierres por encima de la media de 25 sesiones.

Proyección temporal de puntos medios

En mi opinión un final del ciclo primario no procedería hasta julio – agosto.

A largo

De no superar los índices la cresta del 2 de mayo reforzaría mi hipótesis de que el mercado ha entrado en un tramo bajista largo.

Eso es lo que se desprende tanto del análisis cíclico como de las ondas de Elliott.

ELLIOTT

En mi opinión el recorte desde las recientes crestas obedece a una cuarta onda larga cuyo alcance se prolongará en principio hasta el final del ciclo primario.

Ver gráfico Elliott en la sección CATREGORIES del blog

IBEX 35 – PAUTA PARA CINCO SESIONES

Resistencias semana  —     10163  –  10241

Soportes semana  ——-        9861  –   9783

Con cierres por debajo de 10163 es bajista

10163 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por encima quedaría alcista.

Soportes y resistencias diarios en Twitter:

guinartciclos


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