DOW JONES I.A. - 3 de febrero de 2010
- Posted by Francisco Guinart on February 3rd, 2010 filed in Dow
Ciclo Primario (órbita media 15-21 semanas)
El tercer Ciclo Primario desde 2 de noviembre de 2009 entra en su decimocuarta semana.
Primera fase: desde el 2 de noviembre al 18 de diciembre de 2009
Segunda fase: transitando desde el 18 de diciembre, cresta de fase y del completo ciclo primario en los 10730 puntos, no habrá otra, tanto por parte de ese ciclo como del ciclo de 50 semanas del que ese primario forma parte.
Indicado en el informe semana acerca de los recortes:
Podrían obedecer al tramo final de un ciclo de corto alcance, en cuyo supuesto toda recuperación inmediata quedaría por debajo del indicador MM25 y vuelta a un nuevo fondo.
Una recuperación rompiendo la resistencia que representa la MM25 podría entenderse como formando parte de una última fase del ciclo primario corriente, o bien como inicio de un nuevo ciclo, según vaya ser la calidad del rebote conoceremos el punto de ciclo.
Ciclo de 50 semanas
El tramo desde los 10730 puntos es terminal del ciclo de 50 semanas, una vez definido su fondo final seguirá importante recuperación como inicio de uno nuevo.
Proyección temporal de puntos medios:
Ultima semana de enero – primera semana de febrero
Cuarta semana de febrero
Segunda semana de marzo
Antecedentes:
Inicio de Ciclos largos en el mes de marzo.
Primer Ciclo Primario desde 6 de marzo hasta 8 de julio.
Segundo Ciclo Primario desde 8 de julio hasta 2 de noviembre.
Tercer Ciclo Primario transitando su decimocuarta semana.
Claves para seguir este informe en el libro:
CICLOS, Un Instrumento de Análisis Bursátil
Francisco Guinart en Febrero de 2008
February 3rd, 2010 at 6:39 pm
Hola sr. Guinart,
le escribo para felicitarle y darle las gracias por el blog y comentarle que he encargado su libro online para poder seguir más atentamente y con más conocimiento sus comentarios.
Entiendo que el tercer ciclo primario sería el último del ciclo de 50 semanas y que a este le seguiría otro de duración similar con tendencia bajista. Lo estoy interpretando correctamente? Bueno, en cuanto me llegue el libro me quedará más claro si la interpretación es esta y sus matizes. Por cierto, al transcribir el texto ha cambiado la fecha de Enero 2010 por la de Diciembre cuando señala el máximo del DJIA.
Saludos.
February 4th, 2010 at 6:16 pm
Hola, gracias por tus comentarios.
Parece bastante evidente que ese tercer ciclo primario será último dentro del ciclo de 50 semanas que en principio va a cerrar por encima de su inicio, lo que es alcista)
El próximo Ciclo Primario será primero dentro de un nuevo ciclo de 50 semanas.
Se deduce que de entrada el próximo primario no tiene precisamente que ser bajita.
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