INFORME SEMANA - 1 al 7 de febrero de 2010
- Posted by Francisco Guinart on January 30th, 2010 filed in Informe Semanal
Análisis cíclico
Entrando en la semana catorce del tercer Ciclo Primario, décima para el índice NIKKEI
Acerca de los recortes, podrían obedecer al tramo final de un ciclo de corto alcance, en cuyo supuesto toda recuperación inmediata quedaría por debajo del indicador MM25 y vuelta a un nuevo fondo.
Una recuperación rompiendo la resistencia que representa la MM25 podría entenderse como formando parte de una última fase del ciclo primario corriente, o bien como inicio de un nuevo ciclo, según vaya ser la calidad del rebote conoceremos el punto de ciclo.
Sigue vigente el contenido publicado del día 27 de diciembre sobre proyecciones cíclicas para el año 2010, al menos en lo relativo a períodos de final de ciclos dados en aquella fecha.
Por otra parte, los movimientos recientes apuntan como tiempos de cambios los siguientes tramos:
Ultima semana de enero – primera semana de febrero
Cuarta semana de febrero
Segunda semana de marzo
PAUTAS PARA CINCO SESIONES
IBEX 35
Cierre semanal bajista
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 11238 – 11365
Soportes semana ——- 10821 – 10694
Con cierres por debajo de 11238 es bajista
11238 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por encima quedaría alcista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Semana catorce desde 3 de noviembre
Es tercero y último dentro del ciclo de 50 semanas.
Cresta de ambos ciclos en 12241 puntos.
El punto de ciclo vendrá determinado según el comportamiento del índice al entorno de la MM25.
EURO STOXX 50
Cierre semanal bajista
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 2824 – 2845
Soportes semana ——– 2737 – 2716
Con cierres por debajo de 2824 es bajista
2824 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por encima quedaría alcista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Semana catorce desde 3 de noviembre
Es el tercero y último dentro del ciclo de 50 semanas.
Cresta de ambos ciclos en 3044 puntos.
El punto de ciclo vendrá determinado según el comportamiento del índice al entorno de la MM25.
DOW JONES
Cierre semanal bajista
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 10211 – 10285
Soportes semana ——- 9993 – 9919
Con cierres por debajo de 10211 es bajista
10211 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por encima quedaría alcista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Semana catorce desde 2 de noviembre.
Es el tercero y último dentro del ciclo de 50 semanas.
Cresta de ambos ciclos, de momento en 10730 puntos.
El punto de ciclo vendrá determinado según el comportamiento del índice al entorno de la MM25.
NASDAQ 100
Cierre semanal bajista
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 1762 – 1783
Soportes semana ——- 1724 – 1703
Con cierres por debajo de 1762 es bajista
1762 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por encima quedaría alcista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Semana catorce desde 2 de noviembre
Es el tercero y último dentro del ciclo de 50 semanas.
Cresta de ambos ciclos, de momento en 1897 puntos.
El punto de ciclo vendrá determinado según el comportamiento del índice al entorno de la MM25.
Claves para seguir este informe en el libro:
CICLOS, Un Instrumento de Análisis Bursátil
Francisco Guinart en Febrero de 2008
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