INFORME SEMANAL - Del 24 al 30 de marzo de 2008
- Posted by Francisco Guinart on March 22nd, 2008 filed in Informe Semanal
Análisis cíclico
En su octava semana, el ciclo primario de los índices analizados ha puesto de manifiesto el fondo de un final de fase, fondo que en algunos casos ha penetrado el soporte del 22 de enero.
En el anterior informe los índices NASDAQ y NIKKEI ya lo habían perdido, en la semana recién terminada otros índices han tenido igual comportamiento:
CAC, EuroStoxx, DAX y SP500
Decíamos en el último informe semanal que la pérdida del soporte 22 de enero daba pié a dos hipótesis:
1ª) - 22 de enero quizás no fue para estos índice el final de su ciclo de 18 meses, seguirían tendiendo a ese final.
2ª) - Si 22 de enero hubiese sido realmente el final del ciclo de 18 meses, el tramo corriente habría iniciado un recorrido de máximos y mínimos decrecientes.
Hoy no tenemos aún elementos suficientes que permitan apostar por una de ellas. Será preciso esperar hasta ver la calidad del rebote, un mercado alcista requiere como primer paso que los índices se eleven por encima de las crestas de febrero.
En pocas sesiones habrá respuesta, probablemente a mediados de abril cuando nuestro CICLO MAESTRO se halle en período de recorte (gráfico en Ciclo Maestro)
El presente análisis es eminentemente técnico y cualquier situación fundamental puede incidir en el cambio del modelo, por ello aconsejamos reaccionar de inmediato según fuera el comportamiento de los índices frente a los puntos de cambio de tendencia que en cada caso se indican.
IBEX 35
La semana cerró por encima de la línea de tendencia, es alcista.
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 13441 – 13561
Soportes semana ——- 12883 – 12763
Con cierres por encima de 12883 es alcista
12883 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo quedaría bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Entrando en la novena semana del ciclo primario.
Un mercado alcista requiere nueva cresta por encima de los máximos de febrero.
Sucesivos recortes tenderían a definir un punto medio entre dos mitades de ciclo, entre las semanas de la 7 a la 11.
EURO STOXX 50
La semana cerró por debajo de la línea de tendencia pero subiendo desde el día 17, es neutral.
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 3550 – 3594
Soportes semana ——– 3462 – 3418
Con cierres por encima de 3462 es alcista
3462 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo seguiría bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Entrando en la novena semana del ciclo primario.
Un mercado alcista requiere nueva cresta por encima de los máximos de febrero.
Sucesivos recortes tenderían a definir un punto medio entre dos mitades de ciclo, entre las semanas de la 7 a la 11.
DOW JONES
La semana cerró alcista.
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 12628 – 12802
Soportes semana ——- 12097 – 11923
Con cierres por encima de 12097 es alcista
12097 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo quedaría bajista bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Entrando en la novena semana del ciclo primario.
Un mercado alcista requiere nueva cresta por encima de los máximos de febrero, sería la cresta de la segunda fase del ciclo primario.
NASDAQ 100
La semana cerró alcista
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 1803 – 1825
Soportes semana ——- 1716 – 1694
Con cierres por encima de 1716 es alcista.
1716 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo quedaría bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
Entrando en la novena semana del ciclo primario.
Un mercado alcista requiere nueva cresta por encima de los máximos de febrero.
Sucesivos recortes tenderían a definir un punto medio entre dos mitades de ciclo, entre las semanas de la 7 a la 11.
Francisco Guinart en Febrero de 2008
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