INFORME SEMANA - 19 al 25 de julio de 2010
- Posted by Francisco Guinart on July 19th, 2010 filed in Informe Semanal
Análisis cíclico
El ciclo de 50 semanas pudo haber finalizado en febrero, como consecuencia la tendencia sería bajista.
En mi opinión el ciclo de 50 semanas (en base al comportamiento de índices americanos y también FTSE 100) finalizó el mes de febrero.
El índice SP 500 sugiere la siguiente hipótesis:
5 de febrero a 1044 puntos es punto de arranque de un nuevo ciclo de 50 semanas, a su vez inicio del primer ciclo primario dentro del segundo ciclo de 50 semanas.
Cresta del primer ciclo primario a 1219 puntos seguida de recortes hasta finalizarlo el 25 de mayo a 1040 puntos.
25 de mayo es pues el comienzo del segundo ciclo primario dentro del segundo ciclo de 50 semanas, transita su primera mitad.
Caracteriza ese 2º ciclo primario el haber penetrado el soporte 1040 de inicio de ciclo, ello deja definida la cresta de lo que va a ser el completo ciclo de 50 semanas (1219 puntos), no habrá otra, pues la tendencia principal queda bajista, máximos y mínimos decrecientes hasta su fondo final.
PAUTAS PARA CINCO SESIONES
IBEX 35
Cierre semanal neutral
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 10166– 10319
Soportes semana ——- 9760 – 9607
Con cierres por encina de 9760 es alcista
9760 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo quedaría bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
La primera cresta quedó definida el día 21 de junio a 10210 puntos, desde la cresta arco descendente hasta el final de la primera fase el día 1 de julio a 8978 puntos.
Cesta de la segunda fase a 10319.
EURO STOXX 50
Cierre semanal neutral
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 2704 – 2752
Soportes semana ——– 2629 – 2581
Con cierres por encima de 2629 es alcista
2629 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo quedaría bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
La primera cresta quedó definida el día 21 de junio a 2788 puntos, desde la cresta arco descendente hasta el final de la primera fase el día 1 de julio a 2502 puntos.
Cresta de la segunda fase a 2752.
DOW JONES
Cierre semanal neutral
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 10279 – 10408
Soportes semana ——- 10033 – 9904
Con cierres por encima de 10033 es alcista
10033 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo quedaría bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
La primera cresta quedó definida el día 21 de junio a 10594 puntos, desde la cresta arco descendente hasta el final de la primera fase el día 1 de julio a 9614 puntos.
Cresta de la segunda fase a 10408.
NASDAQ 100
Cierre semanal neutral
Previsión:
Resistencias semana — 1827 – 1839
Soportes semana ——- 1779 – 1767
Con cierres por encima de 1779 es alcista
1779 es el punto técnico de cambio de tendencia, con cierres por debajo quedaría bajista.
Ciclo primario (órbita 15 – 21 semanas)
La primera cresta quedó definida el día 21 de junio a 1939 puntos, desde la cresta arco descendente hasta el final de la primera fase el día 1 de julio a 1700 puntos.
Cresta de la segunda fase a 1863.
Claves para seguir este informe en el libro:
CICLOS, Un Instrumento de Análisis Bursátil
Francisco Guinart en Febrero de 2008
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