INFORME SEMANA – 23 al 29 de enero de 2012

Análisis de cíclicos

La semana ha permitido elevar índices hasta definir nuevas crestas de ciclo, aunque no en todos sí en los más significativos como el SP 500 como pone de manifiesto el gráfico.

Se entra pues en el tramo apuntado en el anterior informe, las crestas de la segunda mitad de ciclos primarios quedan definidas o pendientes de definir en pocas sesiones.

El recorte que seguirá a la última cresta llevará el índice a su fondo final, extensible hasta la primera mitad de febrero.

Si el fondo final del ciclo se mantiene por encima de su inicio el resultado del noveno ciclo primario será alcista, lo cual permite continuidad alcista para el décimo.

Esa tendencia alcista iría confirmando el tramo desde octubre como perteneciente a la quinta onda larga de Elliott, con un potencial alcista hasta alcanzar un doble techo con la tercera, o por encima.

Todo ello relativo a un ciclo natural al que los distintos índices tienden a replicar

Se va confirmando también el tramo alcista hasta la cresta del ciclo de 18 meses.

Proyección temporal de puntos medios

Mediados de febrero como momento propicio a definir un final de ciclo.


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